My friend Miles Light supplied this guest posting, aimed primarily at a Canadian readership; Miles is a Ph.D. economist at the University of Colorado, and is a founding partner at the Marijuana Policy Group, a Denver-based economics consultancy. I’m delighted to post this. It cheers me up to see smart, hard-working, public-spirited, and young (compared to me) people like Miles studying the issues.
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Revenue Realities
Miles Light
In the unknown ether of potential marijuana sales and taxes, wild estimates abound. These days, more accurate and realistic estimates are possible. Canadians can ignore them at their peril.
When it comes to legalizing marijuana, the term “anything goes” seems appropriate. In a pattern that follows what happened in other jurisdictions, the economic and political pundits seem to be mystified regarding what would happen when marijuana is legalized in Canada. By far, the most common unknowable unknown is the estimate of tax revenues from pot. Speculation abounds now in Canada, where estimates taken “from the hip” seem to receive equal press and equal legitimacy as quarterly GDP estimates from Statistics Canada. One recent example is a January 28 report by CIBC World Markets, where the author estimates marijuana tax revenues could be “near $5.0 billion”. Unless there is a pot-infused revolution in the Northern Commonwealth, that’s not happening. Continue reading “Dr. Miles Light — Revenue Realities”