On Public Radio Out West

Thanks to Austin Jenkins for putting me on the air about marijuana revenue:

Pat Oglesby runs a think tank in North Carolina that focuses on marijuana taxes. He cautions those numbers are bound to change.  “You’ve got so many uncertainties. You’ve got what’s going to happen with the medical market? What about bootleggers?” he said.

Audio here or http://kplu.org/post/pot-tax-revenue-estimates-likely-hazy

Transcript:

Within the next year, marijuana taxes will start arriving in Washington state coffers. But how much money can the state realistically expect to take in from legal, recreational pot sales? Washington’s revenue forecaster recently unveiled his first estimate, but the numbers may be a bit hazy.

Weather forecasters like historic models. So do revenue forecasters. But since legalizing and taxing recreational marijuana has never been done before there are no historic models. That’s made Washington’s revenue forecaster Steve Lerch, as he put it, “a bit reluctant, a bit uncomfortable to forecast.”

But Lerch recently took the plunge. He now officially forecasts Washington can expect to take in $157 million in the next two-year budget cycle.

Pat Oglesby runs a think tank in North Carolina that focuses on marijuana taxes. He cautions those numbers are bound to change.

“You’ve got so many uncertainties. You’ve got what’s going to happen with the medical market? What about bootleggers?” he said.

Even so, Oglesby thinks Washington is likely underestimating. He says look at Colorado. It’s predicting $134 million in pot taxes in just one year, and he thinks that figure may be a bit high.

++++

This was redone thanks to the complexity of the WA estimate, described in a recent post.

Advertisements

Author: patoglesby

From 1982 to 1990, I worked in tax policy for Committees of the United States Congress. In recent years, I was Adjunct Lecturer at UNC-Chapel Hill's Business School and then Adjunct Professor at its Law School.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s