Oregon marijuana tax revenue would amount to $38.5 million in year 1, says ECONorthwest. The work was paid for by proponents, but I don’t detect bias.
The estimate assumes
— no movement from medical to recreational (because of low taxes, high medical fees).
— 60 percent market share for black/gray market after legalization. If law enforcement steps up, that number should go down over time.
— Big impact of 280E on growers (but that’s unrealistic, since nearly all growers’ expenses are deductible cost of goods sold; 280E hurts retailers much, much more – it hits anyone who does marketing or has a showroom).
— Steady prices during the first two years of legalization (after a minor initial drop). I would think prices would start dropping pronto. But they might spike at first, as they have in CO and WA, though Oregon aims at creating more lead time to get supply ready.